Bangladesh’s remittance inflows are expected to come under pressure as the ongoing Iran war raises the likelihood of slower economic activity across key Gulf labor markets.
Five of the country’s top 10 remittance sources are in the Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, followed by Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. Together, they sent about $1.84 billion in March, according to the Bangladesh Bank.
Economists say the impact is likely to emerge gradually rather than through an immediate drop in inflows.
In the near term, remittances are expected to remain relatively stable as existing migrant workers continue to send money home. However, early adjustments are likely to include reduced overtime and more cautious hiring by employers in construction and service sectors.
If the conflict continues over the coming months, analysts expect a measurable slowdown in remittance growth, with some warning of a potential year over year decline if Gulf economies scale back large projects or face fiscal pressure linked to energy market disruptions.
The most immediate risk is to new migration, as recruitment pipelines slow, which would weaken future inflows. Over time, lower earnings and fewer job opportunities could reduce the total volume of remittances.
Bangladesh relies heavily on these inflows to support household consumption and foreign currency reserves, leaving the economy exposed to prolonged disruption in the Middle East.