Bangladesh faces a critical decision that could define its future prosperity, food security, and ecological stability. China’s plan to construct a colossal hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River—a river that becomes the Brahmaputra as it flows into India and Bangladesh—threatens to upend the water systems relied upon by millions. This project, poised to become the world’s largest dam, will not only alter the river’s course but could also give China strategic control over water flows critical to both India and Bangladesh. Dhaka must take a harder stance, reassess its relationship with Beijing, and seek cooperation with India to prevent devastating consequences.
India’s foreign ministry has already voiced concerns, cautioning that Beijing’s assurances about minimal downstream impact are insufficient. Officials in China argue that the dam will have little environmental or hydrological effect, but history tells a different story. On the Mekong River, which sustains millions of lives across Southeast Asia, China’s upstream dams have drastically disrupted water flows and sediment transport. Satellite data and scientific studies have documented how China’s water management has caused drought-like conditions downstream, even during monsoon seasons. This same playbook could soon be applied to the Brahmaputra, with consequences that Bangladesh cannot afford to overlook.
The Yarlung Zangbo flows from Tibet into India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states before reaching Bangladesh, where it becomes a lifeline for agriculture, fisheries, and daily survival. The dam China envisions could generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually—more than triple the output of the Three Gorges Dam. But that energy comes at the expense of water control, sediment blockage, and potential ecological disaster. Just as rice farmers along the Mekong Delta in Vietnam watched their fertile land wash away due to sediment starvation, Bangladesh’s farmers could face a similar fate if this dam proceeds unchecked.
Bangladesh and India share more than a border—they share a dependency on the Brahmaputra’s waters. Yet, neither country has a water-sharing agreement with China, giving Beijing unilateral control over the flow of this essential resource. This lack of a legal framework means that, once the dam is completed, Bangladesh and India will have little recourse to challenge water diversions or drought-inducing restrictions.
Moreover, China’s record on water diplomacy provides ample reason for skepticism. During the 2019 drought along the Mekong, independent studies revealed that Chinese dams had withheld unprecedented volumes of water upstream, contributing to severe shortages downstream, even as China’s own regions remained wetter than usual. Despite public denials, satellite evidence exposed China’s role in exacerbating the crisis. If China exerted such influence over the Mekong, why would its approach to the Brahmaputra be any different?
The time for Dhaka and New Delhi to act is now. Construction of this mega-dam will take at least a decade to complete, giving both nations a critical window to strategize and pressure Beijing. Diplomacy must be strengthened to demand transparency and accountability from China. Bangladesh should also deepen its coordination with India to amplify its concerns on the global stage, leveraging regional forums and international institutions to ensure its voice is heard.
Failure to confront this issue risks handing China unprecedented control over South Asia’s water supply. Bangladesh cannot afford to wait until the dam is built and the damage is irreversible. By working in unison with India, Bangladesh can push for greater cooperation, sustainable water management, and binding agreements that safeguard the Brahmaputra’s future. Water security is national security—ignoring this reality could have catastrophic consequences for generations to come.
China’s actions on the Mekong should serve as a dire warning: unchecked hydropower ambitions come at a steep price. Bangladesh must learn from that lesson and act decisively to protect its people, its farmlands, and its future.