A new study has found that Bangladesh experienced its most severe dengue outbreak in 2023, with September emerging as the deadliest month. Researchers at Jagannath University reported 396 dengue-related deaths that month, alongside 77,621 patient discharges and 76,775 infections.
The analysis, covering data from 2019 to 2023, shows dengue cases consistently peak between August and October. Government hospitals admitted far more patients than private facilities throughout the five years.
Using machine learning, the study identified two clear outbreak patterns: high-risk clusters during peak seasons and low-risk clusters in off-season months. Predictive models, including decision trees and random forests, achieved more than 99% accuracy in forecasting dengue risk levels.
Researchers found the strongest predictors of outbreaks were total infections, deaths, and patient releases.
The findings highlight the need for early warnings, targeted public health campaigns, and stronger hospital preparedness to manage future dengue surges.